Moving on…

So in Primaries, each party votes for their candidates with the addition of Independents.  In the last two primaries/caucuses Barack Obama has received more independent votes than Hillary Clinton and that is largely the reason for his success.  However, Clinton has owned the votes of the registered Democrats.  Which is better?

Well that all depends.  When the majority of the voters in these things are Democrats and part of the base, Hillary has to be loving this.  That means when she gets to a state where there aren’t as many independents, she will win hands down, while Obama will fall behind relying on the swing voters.  This means that Clinton will most likely win the primaries and ultimately the nomination.

However, in a general election, the swing vote is what counts.  That’s why people spend so much time in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and other states that could go either way.  Registered Democrats will vote for their parties candidate 90% of the time and the same goes for Republicans.  Where things get interesting is the swing vote.

Now we’ve already seen that Obama can pull in that swing vote with no problem while Clinton is struggling with it.  So the scenario is going to break down where Clinton wins the nomination but can’t pull in the swing vote.  She gets the Democrat vote because, well, she’s a democrat and they’ll vote for a monkey if he was on the ticket.  However, because she is such a polarizing individual due to her last name, many independents shy away from her or just don’t vote at all.  She loses the swing states because of this and Dem’s lose the election.

If Obama gets the nomination, which he won’t because he doesn’t have as much of the base behind him, he would still get those Democrat votes that Clinton got, but would also be able to get those independent votes in the swing states and win those.

So Obama can’t get the nomination because he can’t control the base, but this doesn’t matter in the general election.

Clinton will get the nomination because she owns the Democratic base, but can’t get the swing states in the general election.

Does this seem backwards to anyone?

1. Tom Brady – If Moss is back.
2. Peyton Manning – I ain’t gonna be mad if you take him #1.
3. Drew Brees – Despite horrendous start of 1TD and 9Int’s in his first 5 games, he still ended up the #7 overall QB on the year.  He’s for real.
4. Tony Romo – Not as good as his ridiculous start, but not as bad as his finish either.  Romo is a solid keeper for years to come, especially if Owens comes back.
5. Carson Palmer – If an off year is 4,130 yards and 26 TD’s, I’ll take him anytime.
6. Donovan McNabb – 11 TD’s in his final 6 games.  Not convinced he was healthy in the first half.
7. Ben Roethlisberger – The Steelers’ offense is a different animal under Mike Tomlin and it’s good for Big Ben.
8. Matt Hasselbeck -Not Great, not terrible, but he’s a guy you can reliably start every week.  He’s never had under 24 TD’s when starting the whole season.
9. Marc Bulger – Definitely an off year with injuries.  The Rams will be back next year though not like they used to be.
10. Jay Cutler – First year starting = 3400 yds + 20TD’s with a rookie #1 receiver.  I’ll buy low on this guy.

In her most recent debacle, she barges into K-Fed’s house takes the kids, locks them in a room with  her and is carried away on a stretcher to a mental institute.  If this isn’t rock bottom I don’t know what is.  However, I think the media is speculating too much on this.  I have a prediction.

She drinks too much.

Doesn’t she kind of sound like that friend everyone has who gets drunk and does stupid things a little too regularly?  I think she just needs to step off the sauce for a bit and things will start to cool down.

My prediction is that in a few weeks, when we haven’t heard from her in a while, she will come out and say she has a problem with alcohol, go into rehab, get it fixed and make a comeback as a different type of celebrity.  Just sayin…

(APPLAUSE)

I am so proud to have run with such exceptional candidates. I congratulate Senator Obama and Senator Edwards. I thank Senator Dodd, and Senator Biden, and Governor Richardson, and Congressman Kucinich. Together, we have presented the case for change and have made it absolutely clear that America needs a new beginning.

And I am as ready as I can be, after having had this incredible experience here in Iowa, starting out a long time ago, and making this journey with so many people who have become my friends and who I am so grateful for, their hard work and support, those from Iowa, those who have come from around the country. And the people who were there exceeding anybody’s expectations about what it would mean to have the caucuses this year, I thank you. I thank each and every one of you for coming out and standing up for a Democrat.

What is most important now is that, as we go on with this contest, that we keep focused on the two big issues, that we answer correctly the questions that each of us has posed. How will we win in November 2008, by nominating a candidate who will be able to go the distance? And who will be the best president on day one? I am ready for that contest.

(APPLAUSE)

Now, you know, we have always planned to run a national campaign all the way through the early contests, because I want the people of America, and particularly Democrats, and like-minded independents… (LAUGHTER) … and Republicans who have seen the light… (APPLAUSE) … to understand, number one, that the stakes are huge, that the job is enormous, but that I believe we’re going to make the right decision.

There will be a lot of people who will get involved, as they have here in Iowa, of all ages. That is what we want, because we’re not just trying to elect a president; we’re trying to change our country. That is what I am committed to doing.

I have set big goals for our country. I want to rebuild a strong and prosperous middle class. And to me, that is the most important job the next president will have here at home, because if we don’t begin to pay attention to the people who do the work, and raise the families, and make this country great, we will not recognize America in a few years.

And I want to make it absolutely clear I intend to restore America’s leadership and our moral authority in the world. And we’re going to tackle all of the problems that are going to be inherited because of the current administration, including ending the war in Iraq, and bringing our troops home, and then giving them the support that they need.

And we’re going to reform our government. We’re going to make sure that it is not the government of the few, by the few, and for the few, but it actually works for every American again.

And we’re going to reclaim the future for our children. I have done this work for 35 years. It is the work of my lifetime. I have done — I have been involved in making it possible for young people to have a better education and for people of all ages to have health care, and that transforming work is what we desperately need in our country again. I am so ready for the rest of this campaign, and I am so ready to lead.

So if you’re concerned about whether or not we can have quality, affordable health care for every American, then I’m your candidate. And if you’re concerned about whether we can have an energy policy that will break the shackles of our dependence on foreign oil and set forth a new set of goals for us to meet together, then I’m your candidate. And if you are worried about once and for all taking on global warming, making it clear that we will end the unfunded mandate known as No Child Left Behind, that we will make college affordable again, that we will be once again the country of values and ideals that we cherish so much, then, please, join me in this campaign.

We have a long way to go, but I am confident and optimistic, both about the campaign, but maybe more importantly about our country. This country deserves everything we can give to it. You know, there were a lot of people who couldn’t caucus tonight, despite the very large turnout. There are a lot of Iowans who are in the military. They are in Iraq or Afghanistan or somewhere else serving our country, and they need a commander-in-chief who respects them and who understands that force should be only used as a last resort, not a first resort.

And there are a lot of people who work at night, people who are on their feet, people who are taking care of patients in a hospital, or waiting on a table in a restaurant, or maybe in a patrol car keeping our streets safe. And they need a president who’s going to care about them and their families.

You know, I wrote a book some years ago called ”It Takes a Village to Raise a Child,” and in it I have a chapter that I titled ”Every Child Needs a Champion.” Well, I think that the American people need a president who is their champion, and that is what I intend to be.

(APPLAUSE)

So I want to thank all the people who have been part of this campaign so far. I especially want to thank all of my friends here in Iowa who have worked so hard. I want to thank those who have come from across America. I want to thank all of the unions, the more than 6 million union members who support my candidacy.

And I know that we’re going to get up tomorrow and keep pushing as hard as we can to get the message out about what is at stake in this election, because we know that it is literally the future of our country.

So thank you all so very much for caring enough to be involved in politics, for giving of your time and your resources, for understanding that this great democracy of ours deserves to have all of our best efforts. And I promise you this campaign that I am running will certainly have mine and I ask for yours, as well. Thank you all very, very much. God bless you.

You know, they said this day would never come.

They said our sights were set too high. They said this country was too divided, too disillusioned to ever come together around a common purpose.

But on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do.

You have done what the state of New Hampshire can do in five days. You have done what America can do in this new year, 2008.

In lines that stretched around schools and churches, in small towns and in big cities, you came together as Democrats, Republicans and independents, to stand up and say that we are one nation. We are one people. And our time for change has come.

You said the time has come to move beyond the bitterness and pettiness and anger that’s consumed Washington.

To end the political strategy that’s been all about division, and instead make it about addition. To build a coalition for change that stretches through red states and blue states.

Because that’s how we’ll win in November, and that’s how we’ll finally meet the challenges that we face as a nation.

We are choosing hope over fear.

We’re choosing unity over division, and sending a powerful message that change is coming to America.

You said the time has come to tell the lobbyists who think their money and their influence speak louder than our voices that they don’t own this government — we do. And we are here to take it back.

The time has come for a president who will be honest about the choices and the challenges we face, who will listen to you and learn from you, even when we disagree, who won’t just tell you what you want to hear, but what you need to know.

And in New Hampshire, if you give me the same chance that Iowa did tonight, I will be that president for America.

I’ll be a president who finally makes health care affordable and available to every single American, the same way I expanded health care in Illinois, by…

… by bringing Democrats and Republicans together to get the job done. I’ll be a president who ends the tax breaks for companies that ship our jobs overseas and put a middle-class tax cut into the pockets of working Americans who deserve it.

I’ll be a president who harnesses the ingenuity of farmers and scientists and entrepreneurs to free this nation from the tyranny of oil once and for all.

And I’ll be a president who ends this war in Iraq and finally brings our troops home…

… who restores our moral standing, who understands that 9/11 is not a way to scare up votes but a challenge that should unite America and the world against the common threats of the 21st century.

Common threats of terrorism and nuclear weapons, climate change and poverty, genocide and disease.

Tonight, we are one step closer to that vision of America because of what you did here in Iowa.

And so I’d especially like to thank the organizers and the precinct captains, the volunteers and the staff who made this all possible.

And while I’m at it on thank yous, I think it makes sense for me to thank the love of my life, the rock of the Obama family, the closer on the campaign trail.

Give it up for Michelle Obama.

I know you didn’t do this for me. You did this — you did this because you believed so deeply in the most American of ideas — that in the face of impossible odds, people who love this country can change it.

I know this. I know this because while I may be standing here tonight, I’ll never forget that my journey began on the streets of Chicago doing what so many of you have done for this campaign and all the campaigns here in Iowa, organizing and working and fighting to make people’s lives just a little bit better.

I know how hard it is. It comes with little sleep, little pay and a lot of sacrifice. There are days of disappointment. But sometimes, just sometimes, there are nights like this; a night that, years from now, when we’ve made the changes we believe in, when more families can afford to see a doctor, when our children — when Malia and Sasha and your children inherit a planet that’s a little cleaner and safer, when the world sees America differently, and America sees itself as a nation less divided and more united, you’ll be able to look back with pride and say that this was the moment when it all began.

This was the moment when the improbable beat what Washington always said was inevitable.

This was the moment when we tore down barriers that have divided us for too long; when we rallied people of all parties and ages to a common cause; when we finally gave Americans who have never participated in politics a reason to stand up and to do so.

This was the moment when we finally beat back the policies of fear and doubts and cynicism, the politics where we tear each other down instead of lifting this country up. This was the moment.

Years from now, you’ll look back and you’ll say that this was the moment, this was the place where America remembered what it means to hope. For many months, we’ve been teased, even derided for talking about hope. But we always knew that hope is not blind optimism. It’s not ignoring the enormity of the tasks ahead or the roadblocks that stand in our path.

It’s not sitting on the sidelines or shirking from a fight. Hope is that thing inside us that insists, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that something better awaits us if we have the courage to reach for it and to work for it and to fight for it.

Hope is what I saw in the eyes of the young woman in Cedar Rapids who works the night shift after a full day of college and still can’t afford health care for a sister who’s ill. A young woman who still believes that this country will give her the chance to live out her dreams.

Hope is what I heard in the voice of the New Hampshire woman who told me that she hasn’t been able to breathe since her nephew left for Iraq. Who still goes to bed each night praying for his safe return.

Hope is what led a band of colonists to rise up against an empire. What led the greatest of generations to free a continent and heal a nation. What led young women and young men to sit at lunch counters and brave fire hoses and march through Selma and Montgomery for freedom’s cause.

Hope — hope is what led me here today. With a father from Kenya, a mother from Kansas and a story that could only happen in the United States of America.

Hope is the bedrock of this nation. The belief that our destiny will not be written for us, but by us, by all those men and women who are not content to settle for the world as it is, who have the courage to remake the world as it should be.

That is what we started here in Iowa and that is the message we can now carry to New Hampshire and beyond.

The same message we had when we were up and when we were down; the one that can save this country, brick by brick, block by block, (inaudible) that together, ordinary people can do extraordinary things.

Because we are not a collection of red states and blue states. We are the United States of America. And in this moment, in this election, we are ready to believe again.

1. Obama – 38%
2. Edwards – 30%
3. Clinton 39%

Afterwards the candidates made speeches and promises to keep going and I caught some of both the Clinton speech and the Obama speech.  For some reason, I get excited to hear Obama give a speech.  There’s something different about it.  It’s like watching Tiger Woods on Sunday at a major golf tournament, like watching Federer v. Nadal at the French Open, like watching the New England Patriots or Indianapolis Colts offense at work.  He has a way of sending chills up your spine.  Hillary Clinton on the other hand, sounds like the same old, very safe, very moderate politician that doesn’t want to get too emotional.

I liked both speeches, but I couldn’t help thinking Obama’s whole environment last night was just more edgy.  He could barely get two words in between applauses.  Clinton’s looked like your typical every day campaign stop.

You decide, I’ve posted both speeches on my next two blog posts for you to read.  Which candidate looks like someone not so ordinary?

Look at the talent he had this year for example.  It all starts with Franchise QB Trent Green.  Now that’s a guy you can really build a franchise around.  Sure he forgets his name every other Tuesday or when there’s a full moon, but that’s why you play the games on Sunday.  Plus, they drafted a QB for the future in John Beck.  He started his career with a bang (60-107, 1 TD, 3 Int’s, fatty 62.0 rating in 5 games).

So the QB position is clearly set.  Let’s look at RB’s.  Young stud Ronnie Brown may have torn his ACL after 7 games but that’s why you have Jesse Chatman.  Chatman is a guy with fresh legs.  VERY FRESH.  Probably more fresh than any RB in the league actually in that he didn’t have a single carry in the previous 2 seasons.  I like the thinking behind that one.  Just to be safe, they had an ace up their sleeve if things got really bad.  Ricky Williams.  Now that’s a guy you can depend on.  Oh yeah, he only played 1 quarter before going on IR.  Either way, that’s a solid RB bunch.

Not only did they beef up the QB position in the draft, but they took a Return specialist with the 9th overall pick.  Sure they could have taken Brady Quinn or Marshawn Lynch, but can they return punts?  Again, great foresight.

Add an aging defense, a craptastic offensive line, and a touch of Cleo Lemon and you clearly have a super bowl contender.  That is if Cam Cameron would just get the hell out his Pro-Bowl team’s way.  Who knows what they could have accoplished with Mike Tice at the helm?  Good riddance.

I got to thinking about it last night and was wondering just who came up with this strange concept. It seems like Christmas for restaurants. Not only that, but is it a coincidence that it is during the slowest retail month of the year right after everyone just spent tons of money on Christmas? Who came up with this? Are we now in the kind of world where an industry can come up with a holiday and we just flock to it with our wallets wide open? What if next week became “Best Buy” week? I’m not gonna go running to shop there because the week has a special name on it.

Turns out it’s supposedly created by The Washington, DC Convention & Tourism Corporation and the Restaurant Association Metropolitan Washington. Shocker. It also turns out lots of cities around the country celebrate this great “holiday”. So I wonder what kind of deals I get during this particular week.

Lunch: restaurants that will offer a 3-course fixed-price
lunch special for $20.08

Dinner: restaurants that will offer a 3-course fixed-price
dinner special for $30.08

Holy Crap! What a steal? You mean I can eat lunch for the low price of $20.08 + drinks + tax + tip? Wow, I could take the wife out for lunch and only spend $60 American. Not only that, but I could probably find a dinner for 2 for under $100 during this very special time.

Am I the only one thinking this way?

Just Sayin’…

Francis the Cat 6-2
Pat Forde 5-3
Lenn Robbins 4-4